黑色建材日报：政策暖风再起，钢价底部震荡-20250829

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are oscillating at the bottom with the resurgence of favorable policies. Building materials face increasing supply and demand, rising inventory, and accumulating industrial contradictions, pressuring steel prices. Plate consumption maintains toughness, with price support, but the off - season pattern remains unchanged. The release of the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Iron and Steel Industry" by five departments should be noted [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,129 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,385 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally fair, with better low - price transactions and increased purchases. The trading volume of steel on the previous day was 102,700 tons [1]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore price is oscillating upwards with a slight decline in hot metal production. With the arrival of previously high floating cargoes, iron ore supply has increased. High hot metal production ensures rigid demand, but demand will decline due to the parade. Port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory continues to fall from a high level. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [3]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price strengthened slightly. The main 2601 contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.74%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port trended strongly. Traders were fairly active in quoting, and steel mills mainly made purchases for rigid demand. The average daily hot metal production was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, a decrease of 820,000 tons. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 907,000 tons, down 0.66% from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.377 million tons (10 transactions), down 13.94% from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 850,000 tons) [3]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is oscillating; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Affected by macro - sentiment, coking coal and coke are oscillating within a range. With the approaching of the parade, the supply of coking coal is tightening, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The expectation of a new round of price increases for coke has cooled down, and the supply has shrunk due to environmental protection policies. The demand is cautious. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of steel mills, inventory reduction of finished products, and macro - policy adjustments after the parade [6]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - Market Analysis: The coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated within a range, with a divergence in trends. The coking coal main contract rose 0.90%, and the coke main contract fell 0.51%. The customs clearance volume of imported coal decreased, and traders were cautious. Downstream markets mainly made rigid purchases, and the overall trading volume was average [5][6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are in an oscillating state; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The tight supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downward resistance of coal prices has increased. With the approaching of the parade, non - power industries have limited production, and power coal demand has declined from a high level. In the short term, the tight supply situation has not eased, and in the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [7]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - Market Analysis: In the production area, coal prices declined slightly. Frequent rainfall restricted production and sales, and downstream traders slowed down purchases. At the port, the market was quiet, and coal prices continued to fall. The port is in a de - stocking cycle, and continuous de - stocking will support coal prices. Imported coal was weakly stable, with fewer inquiries and transactions [7]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [8].