PVC社库继续累积，供需延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC continues to be weak, with the futures price falling and the basis strengthening slightly. Supply pressure remains high in the long - term, demand is weak, social inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is poor. The export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as maintenance, downstream demand, and transportation restrictions. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4946 yuan/ton (-3), the East China basis is -266 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is -156 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 16.7 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the PVC social inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate is 75.24% (-0.83%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate is 68.66% (-3.78%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 73.33% (-1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2692 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 662.53 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1428.45 yuan/ton (-30.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (-0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the East China printing and dyeing operation rate is 64.73% (+0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (-0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month, but the overall operation rate is at a high level. Newly - added production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the long - term supply pressure is high [3]. - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders and deliveries increase month - on - month. The export in July exceeded expectations due to pre - anti - dumping tax rush exports, but the export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - Profit: There is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profit, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month but is at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong rises slightly, but may decline slightly later due to Yantai Wanhua's maintenance [3]. - Demand side: The profit of alumina is acceptable, the operation rate is stable month - on - month, the delivery volume to alumina plants increases, and the spot price remains stable. The non - aluminum operation rate increases slightly month - on - month, but there is a fear of high - priced goods. Transportation is restricted in late August due to the parade, and factory inventory may accumulate later. The order backlog in Shandong is acceptable [3]. - Profit: The liquid chlorine price is weak, cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy - PVC: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for inter - delivery spread trading, take a wait - and - see approach; there is no inter - variety strategy [4]. - Caustic Soda: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish; for the SH10 - 01 spread, conduct a positive spread trading when the price difference is low; there is no inter - variety strategy [4][5].