油料日报：豆一弱势延续，花生供大于求-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Soybean strategy: Neutral [3] - Peanut strategy: Neutral [3] Core View - The soybean market continues to be weak, with increasing supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a strengthened expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. The peanut market shows a situation of oversupply, with rising supply and slow - growing demand [2][3][4] Market Analysis Soybean - Futures and Spot: Yesterday, the closing price of the soybean 2511 contract was 3927.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.00 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 313, a change of + 8 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - Market Information: Northeast soybean prices were stable, with low inventories and slow sales in grain trading enterprises. New soybean prices are not optimistic, and continuous state - reserve auctions increase supply pressure. Spot prices in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] - Reasons for Decline: Supply - side pressure increases due to continuous state - reserve auctions and approaching new soybean listings. Demand is weak, with low terminal procurement enthusiasm and strong import substitution expectations. The international market has a strengthened expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade negotiations and policy regulation also affect market sentiment [2] Peanut - Futures and Spot: Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7802.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.03%) from the previous day. The peanut spot average price was 8420.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 298.00, a change of - 2.00 (- 0.67%) from the previous day [3] - Market Information: The national average price of peanut general - grade old rice decreased by 0.03 yuan/jin. Rain affected peanut harvest and drying in some areas, delaying the listing progress. Downstream demand was for essential purchases, and a few oil mills bought new peanuts, providing some price support [3] - Reasons for Price Trend: The new peanut season increased supply, while demand growth was slow due to the macro - economic environment and consumption habits. Import volume increase in the international market and competition from other oil crops also affected peanut demand [3][4] Strategy - For soybeans, a neutral strategy is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to supply - side auction rhythms, new soybean listing progress, and international market supply - demand changes [2] - For peanuts, a neutral strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the risk of weakening demand [5]