美联储理事再放鸽，宽松主线延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The dovish signal from Fed Governor Waller indicates that the gold and silver markets will continue to trade on the expectation of future monetary easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to show a moderately bullish trend in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and the Ag2510 contract between 9,200 yuan/kilogram and 9,600 yuan/kilogram [8][10] Market Analysis Economic Data - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [1] Employment Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, compared to an expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [1] Interest Rates - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. He believes that unless the August employment report shows a significant economic slowdown and inflation is well - controlled, there is no need for a larger - scale rate cut in September [1] Tariffs - The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, which is part of a trade agreement with the US. This agreement could retroactively reduce US tariffs on European cars [1] Futures Market Gold Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 783.22 yuan/gram, a change of 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 783.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close [2] Silver Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,287.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 337,242 lots, and the open interest was 278,545 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,390 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.30% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 28, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.203%, up 0.19 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.572%, down 0.22 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold - On the Au2508 contract, there were no changes in both long and short positions compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 192,127 lots, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 583,887 lots, a change of 30.49% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 5.44 tons to 967.94 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 57.89 tons to 15,332.59 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Spot - Futures Price Difference - On August 28, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 12.99 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 783.07 yuan/kilogram [6] Gold - Silver Ratio - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 83.53, a change of - 0.51% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.49, a change of 0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 30,942 kilograms, a change of 13.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 475,098 kilograms, a change of 33.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,518 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]