新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝盘面价格贴近高成本-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market shows a resonance between micro and macro factors during the transition between consumption off - peak and peak seasons. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the overall non - ferrous metals are in a strong and volatile state. The supply of aluminum fundamentals is stable, and consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season. The start - up rate of downstream industries is increasing, and aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline soon. Long - term supply is restricted, and consumption maintains stable growth [6]. - For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea supports the ore price, but domestic smelters have sufficient ore reserves and high port inventory, so the ore price lacks upward momentum. The current futures price is close to the highest full production cost and at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot price. There may be short - term disturbances due to the upcoming election in Guinea and potential impacts on domestic associated bauxite production [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, the consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season, the smelting profit of the industry is rapidly recovering, and the supply of scrap materials remains tight. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On August 28, 2025, the SMM data shows that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,735 yuan/ton, closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 153,341 lots, and the position was 245,028 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 28, 2025, the SMM statistics show that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, a change of 0.4 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 57,275 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 481,150 tons, a change of - 100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 28, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,310 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,040 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.10%. The highest price was 3,066 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,901 lots, and the position was 240,777 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 28, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [10]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 and short AL11 [10].