新能源及有色金属日报：临近周末或升贴水相对维稳，铜价仍陷震荡格局-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. However, due to the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remain in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, a - 0.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,990 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 280 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, with an average of 205 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price was 79,080 - 79,300 yuan/ton. Near the end of the month and weekend, the spot premium is expected to remain stable [2] Important Information Summary - Economic data: The annualized revised value of the US Q2 real GDP increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the Q2 core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [3] - Employment market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, with an expected 230,000 and the previous value revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [3] - Interest rates: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [3] - Tariffs: The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, part of a trade agreement with the US [3] Mine End - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. It is expected to resume full - load production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The ICSG stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined increase in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [5] Consumption - In July, the operation of China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The 29 sample enterprises produced 141,800 tons of copper strips, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,100 tons to 157,950 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 55 tons to 21,232 tons. On August 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 127,100 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Tables - The table shows copper price and basis data, including spot premiums, warehouse receipts, inventory, and arbitrage - related data from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025 [27][28][29]