农产品日报：郑糖偏弱整理，纸浆再创新低-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to the August USDA report, but the actual reduction in production needs further observation. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices in the short - term. However, due to good growth of new cotton, there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing period [2]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production has issues with low cane quality, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in imports suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to sell high [6]. - Pulp: The supply of pulp remains under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,240 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,336 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until December 31, 2025 [1]. Market Analysis - International: The August USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term. The impact of the sliding - scale quota policy is limited, but there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new cotton [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate strongly before the large - scale listing of new cotton. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the demand during the peak season as there will be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,602 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 72, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 194,800 tons (6.67%) from the previous week [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. There is limited room for a sharp rebound. - Zhengzhou sugar: The high profit of out - of - quota imports and the expected increase in imports suppress sugar prices in the short - term [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Limited room for further decline, expected to fluctuate weakly within a range. - Medium - term: There may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter. - Long - term: Sell high [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,002 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with only sporadic price drops [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and there will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. - Demand: The consumption of pulp in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The overall demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Short - term: Pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level as the fundamentals have not improved significantly [9].