农产品日报：压榨量维持高位，豆粕偏弱震荡-20250829

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current soybean fundamentals have no significant changes. The Profarmer's survey shows that this year's US soybean growth is good, matching the USDA's reported record - high yield. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and supply is relatively loose with high future soybean arrivals. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations remains uncertain [3] - For the corn market, the supply is becoming more abundant with decreasing trade inventory in the Northeast and new corn listings. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and overall demand is lackluster [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin soybean meal was 3050 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 2960 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and Guangdong was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). Fujian rapeseed meal was 2580 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [1] - Arrivals: In September 2025, domestic full - sample oil mills' soybean arrivals are estimated at about 1030.25 tons [2] - Transactions: On August 27, 2025, the total soybean meal transaction of major oil mills was 9.20 tons, a decrease of 2.79 tons from the previous day. Spot transactions were 6.70 tons (up 1.01 tons), and forward - month basis transactions were 2.50 tons (down 3.80 tons) [2] - Operation Rate: The current national dynamic full - sample oil mill operation rate is 67.81%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous day [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2185 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.97%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2493 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.89%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jilin corn starch was 2660 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Exports: Brazil is expected to export 780 tons of corn in August 2025, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The US soybean growth is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. Future soybean arrivals are high, and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is uncertain [3] - Corn: The supply in the domestic market is increasing, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, resulting in insufficient upward price momentum [5] 4. Strategies - Soybean Meal: Neutral strategy [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish strategy [6]