新能源及有色金属日报：下游大多按需采购，现货成交相对清淡-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 41.93 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [2] - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509/2510 contracts; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some suppliers quoted a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead price [3] Futures Market - On August 28, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,885 yuan/ton, closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,152 lots, a decrease of 15,274 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, a decrease of 6 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,850 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,880 yuan/ton, closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day [2] Inventory - On August 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2][3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [4]