Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the support mainly comes from the cost side and the macro - environment. With the weakening of the macro - market, rubber prices may face adjustment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not prominent. The cost - side support is further strengthened due to rainfall interference in upstream areas. There is an expectation of increased arrivals in the later period, and there may be pressure on Qingdao ports to accumulate inventory again. It is expected that the domestic supply and demand will show a pattern of both being strong later [7]. - For BR, the upstream production is stable and the inventory is relatively low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profits is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. The cost side of BR still has support. The upstream supply of BR is abundant, and the supply increases month - on - month. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation pressure later. Currently, BR production continues to be in a loss pattern, and the upstream butadiene raw material price and the surrounding natural rubber prices support the lower limit of BR [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,945 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,780 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,980 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first 7 months of 2025 totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2]. - China's natural rubber imports in July 2025 were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports in the first 7 months of 2025 were 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2]. - China's rubber tire exports in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 945 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,095 yuan/ton (+35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,269 yuan/ton (+337.62), the NR basis was 296.00 yuan/ton (- 31.00); the price of whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+150), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,350 yuan/ton (+150) [4]. - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.69), the price of Thai glue was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [4]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (- 0.90%) [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (- 14,554.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [5]. BR - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 120), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton (+200), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,068 yuan/ton (+211) [6]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 75.85% (+6.70%) [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,620 tons (- 790), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,100 tons (+1,900) [6].
化工日报：轮胎厂开工率小幅示弱-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-29 05:08