A股企稳反弹，商品分化市场分析

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A-shares stabilized and rebounded, while commodities showed differentiation. The fundamentals in July remained resilient, with economic data in China and the US showing a mixed picture. Powell's attitude turned dovish, which may pave the way for a Fed rate cut in September. The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and the volatility of commodity prices may remain high. The strategy is to go long on industrial products on dips [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non-manufacturing sector maintained expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, higher than expected. The money supply in financial data exceeded expectations, but the financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data in economic data still faced significant pressure. On August 29, more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets were in the green. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 190 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In the bond market, Treasury bond futures tumbled in the afternoon, with the 30-year main contract falling more than 0.7%. In the commodity market, domestic commodity futures continued to decline, with the container shipping index falling more than 3% and lithium carbonate once falling more than 5%. The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1385 on August 28, up 237 points from the previous trading day. In the US, the non-farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the PMI in August continued to improve [1] Tariff Policies - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department announced that 407 product categories would be included in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300%. He also threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China for rare earth magnet supplies and implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes. The EU reiterated its right to formulate digital rules and refuted the US accusations. The EU plans to legislate to cancel US industrial product tariffs this week to exchange for the US to lower automobile tariffs. The US's 50% tariff increase on India has officially taken effect, and Indian exporters said a large number of orders have been cancelled [2] Central Bank Stances - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish. He believed that the current situation means that the downside risk to employment has increased, and this change in the risk balance may mean that the policy stance needs to be adjusted. He clearly abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework and emphasized that the idea of "intentionally allowing inflation to moderately overshoot" is no longer applicable. After Powell's dovish turn, it paves the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, making the path of rising overseas inflation smoother. The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced" [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the domestic supply side. The energy and non-ferrous sectors are more significantly benefited from overseas inflation expectations. Fundamentally, the black sector is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the fact of "anti-involution". The supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector has not been alleviated. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is also worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but they still need to wait for signals from the fundamentals. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of current policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may still be high [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [4] To-Do List - The main goal is to make important progress in the construction of a modern people's city by 2030, with continuous improvement of policies and systems suitable for high-quality urban development, accelerated transformation of old and new driving forces, obvious improvement of living quality, in-depth promotion of green transformation, strong consolidation of the safety foundation, full display of cultural charm, and significant improvement of governance level; basically build a modern people's city by 2035 [6] Market Trends - The market rebounded after hitting a low during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% at the end of the session, the ChiNext Index rose more than 3%, and the STAR 50 Index soared more than 7%. More stocks rose than fell, with more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets in the green. The total turnover today reached 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% [6] Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar officially closed at 7.1385 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 237 points from the official closing price of the previous trading day and up 115 points from the night session closing price of the previous day [6] Legal Dispute - On August 28, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit in court, challenging President Trump's attempt to remove her from office on the grounds of fraud in her mortgage application. This move has triggered a historic legal battle over the Fed's independence [6] Economic Data - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous 3%. The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the second quarter was 2.5%, in line with expectations and the previous value. Data shows that the US economic growth rate in the second quarter was slightly faster than the initial level, thanks to the rebound in corporate investment and strong trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, a record high; previously, net exports dragged down GDP growth in the first three months of this year [6] Central Bank Meeting Minutes - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced", and their outlook for consumer prices still applied. The meeting summary released on Thursday showed that although further interest rate cuts were mentioned, keeping the deposit rate at 2% after eight interest rate cuts was considered a "prudent" approach. "Most members believed that the risks to the inflation outlook were generally balanced. The resilience shown in recent eurozone economic data has been fully reflected in the baseline scenario of the June forecast, and this forecast has been widely verified. Most policymakers believed that the current interest rate level was reasonable, the inflation rate was maintained around the 2% target, and the economy has so far shown resilience to headwinds such as tariffs and wars. In July, the EU and the US reached a trade agreement, locking in a 15% tariff for most export commodities in the region [6]