港口累库速度加快，关注后续出口动态

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a short - spread arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, but downstream follow - up is cautious. Spot trading has improved. It is the off - season for agricultural demand. In the industrial demand, the compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season, but due to the military parade, the operating rate has decreased, and the operating rate of board factories has also declined. Industrial demand is weak, and downstream still resists high - priced goods. Urea production is at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Some companies have started maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. August is the export window period, urea exports are ongoing, the port collection rhythm is accelerating, and the port inventory accumulation speed is increasing. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. Continued attention should be paid to changes in export dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1753 yuan/ton (+16); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1720 yuan/ton (0); the small - sized urea price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (+10); the small - sized urea price in Jiangsu was 1720 yuan/ton (+10); the price of small - lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 43 yuan/ton (- 6); the Henan basis was - 33 yuan/ton (- 6); the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (- 6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.70% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons). Some companies like Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Lu'an have started maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, future urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1294 yuan/ton (+2). August is the export window period, urea exports are ongoing, the port collection rhythm is accelerating, and the port inventory accumulation speed is increasing. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.22% (- 1.62%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.50% (+11.90%); the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (+0.00). The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season, but due to the military parade, the operating rate has decreased, and the operating rate of board factories has also declined. Industrial demand is weak [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 594,000 tons (+93,000 tons). Urea production is at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]