新能源及有色金属日报：库存持续增加，供给压力不减-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - Futures: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Spot Market: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - Cost: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - Smelting: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - Consumption: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]