新能源及有色金属日报：基本面变化不大，盘面受消息面影响波动-20250829

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern has improved, the spot price has minor fluctuations, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - For polysilicon, the production has increased and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, but the total inventory is still accumulating. The downstream wafer production has improved. The recent spot price has moved up, and the futures price is basically flat with the spot price after a decline. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [8] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Futures: On August 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely. The main contract 2511 opened at 8530 yuan/ton and closed at 8570 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,754 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a change of - 53 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9400 - 9600 (- 50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 541,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 (0) yuan/ton. The prices of main silicone products were close to the enterprise cost line, and the market was in a stalemate with low - price transactions. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - Futures: On August 28, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 49,220 yuan/ton and closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.10% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 143,912 lots (154,537 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 376,304 lots [5] - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a change of - 14.29% month - on - month), the wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a change of 3.68% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon production was 31,000.00 tons (a change of 6.53% month - on - month), and the wafer production was 15.63GW (a change of 27.18% month - on - month) [5] Group 5: Price Information of Other Products - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.58 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.38 (0.00) yuan/piece [7] - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [7] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Group 6: Strategies - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the current fundamental changes are small. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - Polysilicon: In the short - term, conduct range trading. In the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to buy on dips. Pay attention to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]