航运日报：运价中枢持续下修-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center is continuously being revised downward, with the 10 - month contract mainly for short - allocation and the freight rate center moving down. The 12 - month contract still follows the pattern of off - peak and peak seasons, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weakening trend in shock, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [1][6][7]. - The strategy is to go short on the main contract on a single - sided basis and short the 10 - month contract on rallies for arbitrage [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 28, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 82,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 36,721 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1400.00, 1216.00, 1374.00, 1577.20, 1285.00, and 1571.00 respectively [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes: For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210, and in week 37 it was 1140/1900 (currently up to 1155/1930). Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different routes and time periods. The 8 - month contract's final delivery settlement price was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th [2][5][6]. - Geopolitical situation: The Israeli military is preparing to expand military operations in Gaza City against Hamas, and the Houthi armed forces' leader has made relevant statements [4]. - Shipping capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in September was 313,900 TEU, and in October it was 282,100 TEU. There were three blank sailings in September, and HPL announced two additional ships for October [4]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships had been delivered with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered with a total capacity of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [10]. 3.4 Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth analysis is provided in the text, only some chart names are given. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth analysis is provided in the text, only some chart names are given.