光大期货软商品日报-20250829

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.9% to 67.28 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 fell 0.18% to 14,070 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1,889 lots to 510,700 lots. In the international market, attention should be paid to macro and weather changes, and the time for India to import cotton duty - free has been extended to December. In the US, the dollar index was weakly volatile, and the center of the US cotton futures price moved up. Domestically, the position of Zhengzhou cotton increased by nearly 60,000 lots last night. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. As time passes, the market focus will shift to new cotton, with limited supply - demand contradictions and a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. After the new cotton is launched, there is a pressure of high - yield and support from the downstream "scrambling for purchase" expectation. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price will mainly run in a firm and volatile manner [2]. - Sugar: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 72 from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 194,800 tons to 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 6.67%. Domestic spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the position of the futures main contract decreased for three consecutive trading days. The raw sugar futures price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is believed that the domestic futures price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should wait patiently for trading opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged from the previous day; the main basis was 1,266, down 1 from the previous day; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; the national spot price was 15,336 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread was 38, up 6 from the previous day; the main basis was 373, up 8 from the previous day; the Nanning spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On August 28, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,720, down 139 from the previous day, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,240 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,351 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,358 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,458 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.7, down 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On August 28, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,539, down 367 from the previous day, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, etc., but no specific analysis of the charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda ash glass, cotton, and other fields respectively, and have rich research experience and many honors [20][21][22].