有色商品日报-20250829

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper trended upward. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised to 3.3%, better than expected. A Fed official supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. China's urban renewal is expected to speed up. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream orders may pick up, and there are expectations of domestic enterprises restocking and inventory depletion, which could support copper prices, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina production resumption increased, but cost support strengthened, limiting deep declines. The inflow of aluminum ingots decreased and downstream stocking increased, and the inflection point of aluminum prices depends on the last week before September [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The fundamentals improved marginally, and the price may trend upward with low valuation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - Copper: Macroeconomic data in the US was positive, and China's urban renewal policy may boost demand. Inventory changes varied in different markets. Seasonal factors and import window conditions may affect future inventory and price trends [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices declined, and aluminum products showed weak trends. Production resumption and cost factors influenced the market. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - Nickel: Price increases were accompanied by inventory changes. The improvement in fundamentals was not significant, but the price may be strong in the short - term [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Market prices, including those of flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products, changed. Inventory levels in LME, COMEX, and social inventories also changed, along with other indicators such as premiums and import profits [4]. - Lead: Prices of lead products decreased slightly, and inventory levels in LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - Aluminum: Market prices of aluminum and its raw materials changed. Inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - Nickel: Prices of nickel products decreased, and inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories changed [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME changed. Social inventory increased [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased slightly, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME decreased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premiums: Charts showed the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15] - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads: Charts presented the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][22] - 3.3 LME Inventory: Charts displayed the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts showed the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - 3.5 Social Inventory: Charts presented the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - 3.6 Smelting Profits: Charts showed the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 4. Non - research Content (Team Introduction) - The non - research part introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51]