光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报日报-20250829

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On August 28, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.35%, and the position decreasing by 1,804 lots to 274,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped back to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 255 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.1%, and the position decreasing by 10,625 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 745 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. Silicon factories had a high volume of shipments to traders, while the downstream purchase volume was relatively low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution achieved basic control over the polysilicon price, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase under the production release in the southwest region. The industry clearance had not been actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand. The polysilicon spot price started to decline following the cooling of the downstream market sentiment [2]. - Short - term anti - involution - related dynamics still had a driving force on the short - term market, which might guide the correction of expectations and the decline range. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting at high levels. The relevant implementation rules for the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices: The settlement price of the main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some silicon grades decreased, such as the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some 553 silicon also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 255 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices: The settlement price of the main polysilicon futures contract increased by 975 yuan/ton to 49,665 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 650 yuan/ton to 49,745 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type and P - type polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 650 yuan to 745 yuan/ton [4]. - Organic Silicon Spot Prices: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Situation: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,709, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons to 255,245 tons, the inventory in some ports changed (e.g., Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons, and Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,400 tons to 267,300 tons, and the total industrial silicon social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 439,800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,880, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons to 196,200 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total polysilicon social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts present the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - Inventory: Charts display the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25][30]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [31][33][35]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [38][39].