苹果月报：早熟果优果率低，果价短期价偏强-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple supply this year may be similar to that of early - maturing apples, with little change in production but low excellent fruit rate, especially in terms of fruit diameter. Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later when a large number of apples are on the market. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] - In the short term, it is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Foreword Summary 1.1 Market Review - In August, the main - continuous price of apple futures rose from around 7,700 - 7,800 yuan/ton to around 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The increase was due to concerns about the production and excellent fruit rate of new - season apples, especially the poor excellent fruit rate of early - maturing Gala apples and the high price of high - quality apples. The exchange's stricter delivery rules also supported the futures price [4][10] 1.2 Market Outlook - Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term due to the small quantity and high price of high - quality early - maturing Gala apples and stricter delivery rules, but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In August, with the large - scale listing of summer seasonal fruits, the demand for cold - storage apples was relatively weak, and the prices of cold - storage apples in Shandong and Shaanxi declined. The main - continuous price of apple futures rose due to concerns about new - season apple production and excellent fruit rate and stricter delivery rules [10] 2.2 Weak Demand for Old - Season Apples - August is the off - season for apple demand. Cold - storage apple demand was poor, the出库 speed was slow, and prices were weak. As of August 29, 2025, the national main - producing area cold - storage apple inventory was 33.97 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. In September, with the large - scale listing of new - season early - maturing apples, cold - storage apple demand is expected to further weaken, but the inventory will remain low [13][15] 2.3 Possible Problems with the Excellent Fruit Rate of New - Season Apples - In Shaanxi, some areas may have smaller fruit diameters, affecting the excellent fruit rate. In Shandong, the apple size in some areas is currently smaller than in previous years, and the fruit diameter in September needs further observation. In Gansu, the fruit diameter of new - season late - maturing Fuji is normal, and the overall fruit surface is good [18][19] 2.4 Apple Demand in the Off - Season - August is the traditional off - season for cold - storage apple demand. This year, the demand is weaker than in previous years. The cold - storage apple price and gross profit have declined. The daily average arrival volume at Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets has increased seasonally. In September, the demand for cold - storage apples will remain weak, while the demand for new - season early - maturing apples will gradually improve [20][22] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In July, the export volume increased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 6% year - on - year. In August and September, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally. Apple imports: In July, the import volume decreased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume increased by 29.7% year - on - year. In August and September, the import volume is expected to continue to decrease [26] 2.6 Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits decreased seasonally in August and is expected to continue to decline in September. The average wholesale price of watermelons is at a low level in July and August and is expected to rise in September. In September, with the listing of autumn fruits, fruit prices are expected to further decline [29] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Old - season apple inventory is low, and new - season early - maturing apples have quality problems such as poor coloring, small size, and greening. Demand: Old - season apples are in the off - season, while high - quality early - maturing Gala apples have good demand. The impact of holidays this year is weak. Apple prices may be slightly stronger at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term and fall later [32][33]