碳酸锂日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.33% to 78,140 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,600 yuan/ton to 77,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 76,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,480 tons to 28,967 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, with the weekly output decreasing by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Mica - derived lithium production decreased significantly, followed by salt - lake - derived lithium, while spodumene - derived lithium production increased slightly, and recycled lithium production remained basically stable. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is a traditional peak season, downstream production schedules may remain prosperous, and with the decrease in the customer - supplied ratio, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to stock up. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains at 141,000 tons, but it has shown a continuous slight destocking trend in recent weeks, with upstream destocking and downstream and other sectors restocking [3]. - A mine in Jiangxi renewed its safety license, and the price corrected significantly yesterday. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to whether there is new information on the supply side and the September 30th node [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 889 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,205 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,915 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,425 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,500 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan [5]. - For lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan. For lithium hydroxide, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 81,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 71,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.05 US dollars/kg, up 0.2 US dollars [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 56,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 3,020 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 12,667.99 yuan/ton, up 1,431 yuan [5]. - Among the precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 77,500 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) was 76,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 72,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 91,075 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) remained unchanged at 145,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,205 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 33,805 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 30,960 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power - type) was 35,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) was 32,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 227,400 yuan/ton [5]. - In the cell and battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.385 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.33 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.325 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.301 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14] - Price Differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20] - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts illustrate the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33] - Inventory: Charts present the weekly inventory of downstream, smelters, and other sectors of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [37][39] - Production Costs: The chart shows the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [43]