光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1753 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase. Spot prices mostly rebounded slightly. Urea supply decreased significantly, with the daily output dropping to 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day. Demand improved but showed regional differences, with the sales - to - production ratio at around 20%. The market sentiment may fluctuate due to factors like exports and the Indian tender. The outlook is for a firm oscillation [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1311 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease. Spot prices were basically stable. This week, the production of multiple large soda ash plants decreased by 6.78%, and enterprise inventories decreased by 2.27%. Demand was average, with some improvement in low - price spot transactions. The supply pressure eased slightly, but there were no new positive factors. The short - term outlook is for oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern is not optimistic [2]. - Glass futures prices had a narrow - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1174 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Spot prices were stable. Some glass factories intended to raise prices, but the implementation needed to be tracked. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.96 thousand tons, and there was an expectation of increased supply. Demand was cautious, with mid - and downstream buyers purchasing at low prices. The supply - demand contradiction was still not optimistic in the short term, and the short - term outlook is for low - level consolidation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 28, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6473, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 466 [5]. - On August 28, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day and a 1.18 thousand - ton increase from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 78.65%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [5]. - On August 28, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased in most areas. For example, in Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 1720 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 27, the inventory of urea enterprises was 108.58 thousand tons, a 6.19 thousand - ton (6.05%) increase from the previous week [6]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 28, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6180, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1688. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2341, an increase of 242 from the previous day [8]. - On August 28, soda ash spot prices varied by region. For example, in North China, the light - alkali price was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy - alkali price was 1350 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of August 28, the production of soda ash was 71.90 thousand tons, a 5.23 thousand - ton (6.78%) decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 82.47%, a 6.01 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.75 thousand tons, a 2.06 thousand - ton (1.09%) decrease from Monday and a 4.33 thousand - ton (2.27%) decrease from the previous Thursday [8]. - On August 28, the average price of the float glass market was 1151 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.96 thousand tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.04 million weight - box (1.63%) decrease from the previous week and an 11.31% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous week [9]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][25]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [27]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures products such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [27]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of products such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [27].