集运日报：大宗商品仍保持空头趋势盘面承压低位震荡近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Commodities remain in a bearish trend, with the market under pressure and fluctuating at low levels. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [4]. - In the context of international instability, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions for arbitrage strategies. For long - term strategies, it is recommended to set medium - to - high profit - taking levels, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period [2]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [2]. Manufacturing and Service PMIs - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest since May 2024. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The US August Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Trade - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce announced an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary determined unified national tax rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [5]. Futures Contract Information - On August 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1285.0, down 3.31%, with a trading volume of 25,300 lots and an open interest of 54,200 lots, an increase of 523 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Event - On August 27, the Houthi armed forces announced that their missile forces carried out a military strike on targets in Israel, using a "Palestine - 2" hypersonic ballistic missile to strike Ben - Gurion International Airport south of Tel Aviv, causing the airport to suspend operations [5].