KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-29 06:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the improvement in the cost of risk (COR) supports performance growth, with new business CSM (Contractual Service Margin) showing rapid growth [1][4] - The group's net profit for H1 2025 reached 27.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, showing significant improvement compared to the -18.1% year-on-year decline in Q1 [4] - The report predicts that the new business value (NBV) will grow by 11.5%, 12.1%, and 14.2% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the group achieved a premium income of 193.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [4] - The NBV for H1 2025 reached 9.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% (non-retrospective basis), and 32.3% (retrospective basis) [4] - The total investment assets at the end of the period were 2.92 trillion, an increase of 7.0% from the beginning of the year [4] - The net profit forecast for the years 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 50.6 billion, 56.8 billion, and 63.1 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 12.3%, and 11.1% [4][8] Business Segment Insights - The life insurance segment saw a new single premium of 63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, continuing the growth advantage from Q1 [4] - The property insurance segment achieved a premium income of 114.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [4] - The report notes a decrease in the comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance, contributing to higher profits [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to be 7.55, 6.73, and 6.05 for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [8] - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) is projected to be 0.63, 0.58, and 0.53 for the same period [8]