日度策略参考-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock indices, the rapid flow of funds amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key nodes of domestic and foreign macro - events in September, stock index fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space of bond futures [1]. - The probability of interest rate cuts in September remains high, and the gold price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. - Key mineral tariffs help the silver price rise, but volatility risks still need to be vigilant [1]. - Due to repeated market sentiment, copper prices are oscillating [1]. - During the domestic consumption off - season, the downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, and aluminum prices are running weakly [1]. - The increase in both production and inventory of alumina weakens the fundamentals and pressures the price. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - position layout in the far - month contract [1]. - The continuous increase in social inventory pressures the zinc price, but the LME zinc inventory is still decreasing, and the macro - sentiment still supports the non - ferrous sector. The downward space of zinc price is limited, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement raises the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the macro - sentiment turns warm. The nickel price is expected to rebound with macro - oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel rise, the social inventory remains stable, and the steel mills resume production after profit repair. The stainless steel futures are expected to rebound with oscillations in the short term [1]. - The improvement of macro - sentiment boosts the tin price. Although the short - term fundamentals show weak supply and demand, the upward trend of the tin price center remains unchanged [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply resumes in the southwest and northwest, there is great hedging pressure, and market sentiment is relatively strong [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - long term, terminal installation willingness is low, but profits are considerable [1]. - For lithium carbonate, there are frequent disturbances at the resource end, and the short - term downstream replenishment volume is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1]. - For iron ore, the near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the anti - involution situation is long - term, and they follow the black sector in the short term [1]. - For glass, the reality is weak, the market returns to trading fundamentals, and the near - term is weak while the far - term is strong [1]. - For soda ash, the reality is weak, the expectation declines, and the price goes down [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the fundamentals are marginally weakening, and they are regarded as oscillating weakly [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia's "strong reality" of low inventory and high export quotes, along with the "strong expectation" of implementing B50 next year, and the less - than - expected exemption of small refineries in the US are regarded as a situation of "bad news being exhausted" [1]. - For soybean oil, there is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, and an opening of the export trade flow, which brings an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. The raw material cost supports the upward movement of soybean oil [1]. - For rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed production in Russia and Ukraine, the less - than - expected increase in sunflower oil production in the Black Sea region, and the expected reduction in rapeseed supply support the price of new - season rapeseed oil [1]. - For cotton, the short - term increase in positions drives the price up, and the 01 contract has limited upside. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - For sugar, it is running strongly, but the upside is limited, and attention should be paid to the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - For corn, it is currently in the new - old transition window period, the supply of remaining grain is tightening, and the C01 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - For soybean meal, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the downside space is limited under cost support [1]. - For pulp, the external quotation is rising, and the 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - For logs, the futures are approaching delivery, and the valuation is reasonable, with an expected oscillation range of 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - For live pigs, the slaughter is gradually increasing, the weight reduction is limited, and the breeding cost is decreasing [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as India's reduced procurement of Russian crude oil, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause concerns about demand [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The probability of the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, domestic rainfall disturbs production, the raw material cost support is strong, the inventory reduction is slow, and the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC +'s continuous production increase makes the crude oil fundamentals loose, the downstream trading of BR rubber improves slightly, and attention should be paid to inventory levels and autumn device overhauls [1]. - For PTA, domestic device returns increase production, the PX - naphtha price spread expands, and the profit is significantly repaired [1]. - For ethylene glycol, there are rumors of industry reform, the arrival of overseas devices decreases, but the hedging volume increases after the price rises [1]. - For short - fiber, factory overhauls increase, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market gradually increases under high basis and strong cost [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is warm, there are many overhauls, and the demand is mainly rigid, with prices oscillating weakly [1]. - For PP, the overhaul support is limited, orders are rigid, and the price oscillates weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1]. - For PVC, the supply pressure increases as overhauls decrease, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price oscillates weakly [1]. - For styrene, the spot market is approaching the peak season, the inventory is low, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector reappears [1]. - For LPG, there are rumors of industry reform, the freight rate rises, the Middle East supply decreases, and domestic chemical demand increases, but attention should be paid to the cancellation in September and the 9 - 10 month spread [1]. - For container shipping routes, the supply in September exceeds the same - period level, the high - price airline quotes are expected to decline, and the freight rate decline is slightly faster than expected [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rise, with the approaching of September macro - event nodes, fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Treasury bonds: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank's interest rate risk reminder suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold: Bullish. High probability of interest rate cuts in September supports the price in the short term [1]. - Silver: Bullish. Key mineral tariffs help the price rise, but volatility risks need attention [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Oscillating. Repeated market sentiment leads to oscillating prices [1]. - Aluminum: Oscillating weakly. Domestic consumption off - season pressures downstream demand [1]. - Alumina: Attention should be paid to far - month long - position layout opportunities due to increased production and inventory [1]. - Zinc: Oscillating. Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decrease and macro - support limit the downside [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation and rebound following the macro - situation. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term oscillation and rebound. Attention should be paid to actual steel mill production [1]. - Tin: The price center is expected to move up. Pay attention to seasonal overhauls in Yunnan [1]. - Industrial silicon: Oscillating. Supply resumes, hedging pressure is large, and market sentiment is strong [1]. - Polysilicon: Oscillating. Medium - long - term capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, but considerable profits [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating. Resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating. Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro - drive is warm [1]. - Iron ore: Oscillating. Near - month restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: Oscillating. Anti - involution is long - term, following the black sector in the short term [1]. - Glass: Oscillating. Weak reality, near - term weak and far - term strong [1]. - Soda ash: Oscillating downward. Weak reality and declining expectation [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly. Fundamentals are marginally weakening [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Bullish. Indonesia's "strong reality" and "strong expectation", and "bad news being exhausted" in the US [1]. - Soybean oil: Bullish. Expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and raw material cost support [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Bullish. Production reduction and supply shortage expectations support the price [1]. - Cotton: Short - term increase in positions, limited upside for the 01 contract [1]. - Sugar: Strongly running, limited upside, attention to 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - Corn: Oscillating at a low level. New - old transition period, tightening supply of remaining grain [1]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating. Short - term weak performance, limited downside under cost support [1]. - Pulp: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread due to rising external quotes [1]. - Logs: Oscillating. Approaching delivery, reasonable valuation [1]. - Live pigs: Slaughter increasing, weight reduction limited, cost decreasing [1]. Energy - Chemical - Crude oil and fuel oil: Oscillating. Concerns about demand due to multiple factors [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillating. Following crude oil, sufficient supply [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillating. Production disturbance, strong cost support, slow inventory reduction [1]. - BR rubber: Oscillating. Loose crude oil fundamentals, slightly improved downstream trading [1]. - PTA: Bullish. Increased production, expanded price spread, and repaired profit [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating. Rumors of reform, decreased arrival, increased hedging [1]. - Short - fiber: Oscillating. More overhauls, increasing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea: Oscillating. Easing export sentiment, insufficient domestic demand, cost support [1]. - PE: Oscillating weakly. Warm macro - sentiment, many overhauls, rigid demand [1]. - PP: Oscillating weakly. Limited overhaul support, rigid orders, returning to fundamentals [1]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly. Increasing supply pressure, many near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Styrene: Bullish. Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1]. - LPG: Oscillating. Rumors of reform, rising freight rate, supply - demand changes [1]. Others - Container shipping routes: Freight rates are expected to decline. Supply exceeds the same - period level, and high - price quotes are expected to fall [1].