化工日报：本周EG主港库存继续下降-20250829

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was weakly consolidated, and the market negotiation was average. The weak commodity atmosphere and the planned production cut by large polyester bottle chip manufacturers suppressed market sentiment [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to increase after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September. The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance with little supply-demand contradiction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Current demand shows signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]