集运日报：大宗商品仍保持空头趋势，盘面承压低位震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increase the difficulty of market gaming, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - Commodities remain in a bearish trend, with the market under pressure and fluctuating at a low level. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period [2] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [2] Economic Data of Different Regions - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, and reached the highest level since May 2024. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), reaching a 39 - month high; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3] Trade and Tariff Issues - The extension of China - US tariffs continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4] - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce announced an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling of a unified national tax rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - preference investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: High - level profit - taking is recommended for each contract. Wait for the callback to stabilize and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Information - On August 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1285.0, down 3.31%, with a trading volume of 25,300 lots and an open interest of 54,200 lots, an increase of 523 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily limit and lower limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - On August 27, the Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that their missile forces carried out a military strike on targets in Israel to respond to Israel's continuous military operations in the Gaza Strip. A "Palestine - 2" hypersonic ballistic missile was used to strike Ben - Gurion International Airport south of Tel Aviv, causing the airport to suspend operations [5]