国贸期货黑色金属数据日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Steel market: The steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention to short - term long opportunities. The 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace's static cost, providing static support for hot metal production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - Ferro - silicon and ferromanganese: The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has limited impact on dual - silicon. The anti - involution policy supports prices in the long - term. Supply is increasing, inventory is being depleted, and steel tenders are generally positive, but inventory pressure remains [5][6]. - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to be weak. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line long - position investors should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - Iron ore: Although there is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, considering the "anti - involution" policy and potential policy changes in the steel sector, the 01 - contract has effective support below [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Contract Prices and Changes: On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83% [1]. - Spread and Ratio: On August 28, the coil - rebar spread was 256 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.96, down 0.05; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42, down 0.02; the rebar disk profit was - 69.33 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 109.75 yuan/ton, down 24.93 yuan [1]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: On August 28, Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 103.9, up 1.45. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the billet - product spread was 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Unilateral short - term long positions can be taken with the 3100 level as the support and the previous low as the stop - loss. For futures - cash operations, follow the basis changes and conduct positive - spread rolling operations [4][9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread. Industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities after price increases [7][9].