Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.459 billion RMB for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.897 billion RMB, down 20.1% year-on-year, primarily due to an unexpected impairment of 0.26 billion RMB [1][4]. - The interim dividend declared is 0.674 billion RMB, representing 80% of the net profit attributable to the parent company (excluding perpetual bond distributions), with a corresponding DPS of 7.35 HKD, reflecting a 5% increase from 1H24 [1][4]. - Capital expenditure decreased by 40% year-on-year to 0.94 billion RMB, while free cash flow significantly improved to 1.75 billion RMB [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The water treatment service revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 4.52 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 60% due to an increase in average water prices in China [2][3]. - The revenue from water governance construction services dropped by 57% year-on-year to 0.71 billion RMB, mainly due to the company's strategy of reducing investments in BOT projects [2][3]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company’s cash flow continues to show improvement, with an expected net inflow of operating cash flow of 1.94 billion RMB for 1H25, compared to approximately 0.25 billion RMB in 1H24 [3][4]. - The company’s light asset transformation strategy is expected to further reduce capital expenditures, with a projected decrease in future capital spending [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating 1.52 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.3% from previous estimates [4][10]. - The target price is set at 3.15 HKD, based on a target PE of 18.9x for 2025, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [4][6].
北控水务集团（00371）：减值拖累净利，1H25派息同比+5%