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上海银行(601229):核销力度加大,分红比例提升至32%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Bank is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - Shanghai Bank reported a revenue of 27.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.2 billion yuan, up 2.02% year-on-year. The bank's non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio stood at 1.18% and 243.6% respectively at the end of Q2 2025 [1][9]. - The bank has increased its dividend payout ratio to 32.2%, up from 30.2% in 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][11]. Performance Summary - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 decreased by 2 basis points to 1.15%, with interest income growing by 1.72% year-on-year. The decline in net interest margin has slowed, primarily due to improvements in funding costs [2][3]. - Non-interest income from fees and commissions decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, while other non-interest income grew by 12.1%, driven by a lower comparative base from the previous year [2][3]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the end of Q2 2025, total assets reached 3.29 trillion yuan, with total loans amounting to 1.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% and 0.9% respectively [4]. - The bank's deposit structure continues to improve, with total deposits at 1.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18%, with a provision coverage ratio of 243.64%. The overdue rate decreased to 1.60% compared to the end of the previous year [9][10]. - The bank has intensified its write-off efforts, with a write-off amount of 9.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to 4.3 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [10][11]. Financial Forecast - The bank's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 24.8 billion, 26.2 billion, and 27.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.07%, 5.74%, and 6.36% [11][12].