Guohai Securities·2025-08-29 08:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that intensified competition in the food delivery sector has pressured profits, while the company is expected to release long-term value [2][6] - Meituan's Q2 2025 revenue reached 91.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% [11] - The report anticipates that the company's core local business will continue to face challenges due to increased competition and overseas expansion losses [10][18] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 91.8 billion RMB, with operating profit of 200 million RMB (YoY -98%, QoQ -98%) and net profit of 400 million RMB (YoY -97%, QoQ -96%) [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA was 2.8 billion RMB (YoY -81%, QoQ -77%), and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.5 billion RMB (YoY -89%, QoQ -86%) [11] Business Segments - Food Delivery Business: Q2 2025 saw a steady growth in food delivery, with estimated order volume increasing by 10% YoY. The company is enhancing supply through various models to boost user engagement [7] - Flash Purchase Business: Strong growth in order volume and transaction value was noted, with significant increases during promotional periods. The establishment of over 50,000 flash warehouses supports local store digital transformation [7] - In-store and Travel Business: This segment performed well, with order volume growing over 40% YoY and revenue increasing by 15% YoY [7] Financial Forecasts - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 370.2 billion RMB, 417.9 billion RMB, and 475.5 billion RMB respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 5 billion RMB, -5.02 billion RMB, and 26.2 billion RMB [10][18] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 735.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 120 RMB per share [10][19]