Keshun(SZ:300737) HTSC·2025-08-29 08:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 5.81 [7][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.22 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 46.96 million, down 49.98% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of RMB 1.83 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.10% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.83% [1][7]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to ongoing price competition in the industry and slow recovery in pricing by leading companies. However, with the narrowing decline in new construction area, demand for waterproof materials is expected to stabilize [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The revenue structure for H1 2025 showed a decline in sales of waterproof rolls and coatings by 9.79% and 9.15% respectively, while construction services increased by 2.36%. The overall gross margin improved to 24.68%, up 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, due to optimized revenue structure and increased sales in high-end markets [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin for waterproof materials was 28.17%, an increase of 2.70 percentage points year-on-year, while the margin for construction services was 7.67%, down 6.11 percentage points [2]. Financial Health - The company’s expense ratio for H1 2025 was 18.06%, up 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant reduction in financial expenses by 49.56% due to decreased interest payments. The net profit margin was 1.46%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stood at 69.4%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, while accounts receivable decreased by 7.48% to RMB 4.36 billion [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established an industrial merger and acquisition fund with a total scale of RMB 481 million to invest in cutting-edge technology, aiming to drive innovation and improve efficiency. This move is in response to the market's shift towards renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock [4]. - The company is focusing on a strategy prioritizing civil construction, which is expected to capture the demand for renovation materials in the home decoration market, thereby reinforcing its leading position in the waterproof materials sector [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 27.65%, 10.23%, and 4.31% respectively, with expected profits of RMB 184.29 million, RMB 330.45 million, and RMB 432.95 million [5][12]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 35 times for 2025, leading to an upward adjustment of the target price to RMB 5.81 [5].