Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-29 08:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 1,450.1 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 83.993 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [6] - The company aims to reduce costs and increase efficiency to withstand cyclical fluctuations in the oil market [6] - Future oil prices are expected to stabilize in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with an anticipated increase in oil and gas production contributing to improved performance in the upstream segment [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,969.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 156.142 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected at 0.85 yuan [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, totaling 402.65 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 47.94% [6] Operational Highlights - The company achieved an oil and gas production of 924 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025, up 2% year-on-year [6] - The average oil price in the first half of 2025 was $66.21 per barrel, down 14.5% year-on-year [6] - The refining segment's operating profit decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a total of 111 billion yuan [6] - Natural gas sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a total of 1,515 billion cubic feet sold [6]