中辉能化观点-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are still uncertain, and there is disturbance support for oil prices [1]. - LPG: Valuation is repaired, the cost side is weakening, and it is under short - term pressure [1]. - L: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [1]. - PP: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [1]. - PVC: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, and the market is in a bearish continuation [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is still high, but it is expected to be bullish in the short term due to various factors [1]. - PTA: Recent device maintenance has increased, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, so it is expected to be bullish [2]. - Methanol: Supply - side pressure continues to increase, demand is weak but expected to stabilize, and the fundamentals are still weak [2]. - Urea: The device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good, and it is cautiously bullish [2]. - Asphalt: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - Glass: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is in a low - level oscillation [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.70%, Brent rising 0.80%, and SC falling 1.09% [5]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually weakening [6]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, with a daily transportation volume of 730,000 barrels in the first half of the year. India's crude oil imports decreased. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic crude reserve increased by 800,000 barrels [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the $60 new - drilling cost support for SC in the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - Market Review: On August 28, the PG main contract closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [11]. - Basic Logic: Recently, the LPG valuation has been repaired, the main contract basis is normal, and the PDH device operating rate has decreased [12]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: As of August 29, the LPG commodity volume increased, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed, and refinery inventory increased while port inventory decreased [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [13]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,402 yuan/ton (down 21 day - on - day), and the North China Ning coal price was 7,230 yuan/ton (down 40 day - on - day) [17]. - Basic Logic: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The peak season in September is approaching, this week's output has decreased, and next week's output is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips as the peak season is approaching. Focus on the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [17]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 closed at 7,020 yuan/ton (down 1 day - on - day), and the East China drawn wire market price was 6,961 yuan/ton (down 33 day - on - day) [21]. - Basic Logic: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on short - term dips due to the low absolute price. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [22]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closed at 4,946 yuan/ton (down 3 day - on - day), and the Changzhou spot price was 4,700 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [25]. - Basic Logic: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, this week's operation is expected to decline, and next week's production is expected to increase [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautious about short - selling as the market is in a short - term weak oscillation and the further decline space is limited. Focus on the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - Market Review: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7,014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6,966 yuan/ton (+8) [29]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices at home and abroad have slightly increased their load, demand - side PTA device maintenance has increased, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6770 - 6920] for PX511 [31]. PTA - Market Review: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4,865 yuan/ton (+35), and the TA01 closed at 4,868 yuan/ton (+8) [33]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance has increased recently, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4820] for TA01 [35]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 closed at 4,474 yuan/ton (+1) [37]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, while demand is recovering [38]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4450 - 4500] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2,320 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2,405 yuan/ton (-20) [40]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas device loads are increasing, supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions from high levels carefully, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities for 01 on dips. Focus on the range of [2365 - 2395] for MA01 [42]. Urea - Market Review: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20), and the main contract closed at 1,739 yuan/ton (-25) [44]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good [45]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold 01 long positions carefully, and conduct range operations due to the short - term intensified long - short game. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1765] for UR01 [46]. Asphalt - Market Review: Not mentioned in the text. - Basic Logic: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - selling [3]. Glass - Market Review: Not mentioned in the text. - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see due to the low absolute price and intense capital game [3]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Not mentioned in the text. - Basic Logic: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the supply is still under pressure [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see as it is in a low - level oscillation [3]