居民存款入市：A股主升的增量资金主力

Investment Highlights - The report identifies four phases of the A-share bull market: initiation (broad-based rally, policy support, and undervaluation), consolidation (differentiation, value blue chips), main rise (uptrend, technology growth + strategic themes), and peak (breakthrough, speculative bubbles + consumption) [4] - With macroeconomic conditions improving in July, including a rebound in M1, narrowing M2-M1 spread, and PPI bottoming out, there has been a significant influx of resident deposits into the market, supporting the main rise of A-shares [4][10] Phase Analysis 1. Preventive Savings and Bond Market Dominance - From August 2022 to August 2024, the bond market has been favored while A-shares experienced a downward trend due to economic weakness and low PPI and M1 [5][13] - The report notes a shift in resident behavior towards preventive savings, with a significant increase in prepayment of loans and a decline in market liquidity [25][27] 2. Normalization of Savings and Balance Between Stocks and Bonds - From September 2024 to June 2025, the report anticipates trading opportunities in bonds while A-shares will experience volatility as the economy stabilizes [40][41] - The normalization of savings is driven by low interest rates and an asset shortage, leading to a gradual recovery in risk appetite among residents [60][61] 3. Resident Deposits Entering the Market and A-share Main Rise - Since July 2025, the report highlights a shift towards equities while bonds adjust, with a notable increase in resident deposits entering the A-share market [73][74] - The correlation between M1 growth and A-share performance is emphasized, indicating that as M1 increases, so does the A-share index [75][77] Policy Environment - The report outlines a combination of monetary easing, fiscal support, and real estate policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence [24][47] - Key policy measures include multiple rounds of interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan policies to stimulate the real estate market [23][51] Asset Performance - The bond market has shown a configuration advantage, with a shift towards bond-like assets such as REITs and high-dividend bank stocks as investors seek defensive positions [32][64] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently favoring a "barbell strategy," with strong performance in both high-dividend sectors and growth-oriented stocks [71][72]