贵金属早评：初请失业金人数低于预期前值，关注7月个人消费支出价格指数PCE-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a September interest rate cut due to easing employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold and Silver Market Data - Shanghai Gold: On August 28, 2025, the closing price was 779.86 yuan/gram, up 2.24 yuan from the previous day and 8.23 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 30,942, and open interest was 2,396 [2]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,182 yuan/ten - grams on August 28, 2025, with a trading volume of 475,098 and an open interest change of - 25,366 [2]. - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 3,392.20, with a trading volume of 151,643 and an open interest of 336,177. Inventory was 200,824.48 fine ounces [2]. - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 39.71, trading volume was 54,907, and open interest was 62,636. Inventory was 517,194,775.47 fine ounces [2]. Important Information - Macroeconomic Data: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the PCE price index was 2.5%. Last week, the initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and the continued claims dropped to 1,954,000, both lower than expected [2]. - Central Bank Policies: - The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with possible further cuts in the next three to six months [2]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan may start to reduce quarterly treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 and has an expectation of raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,200 - $3,300 and the resistance level around $3,450 - $3,500. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810. For London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [2].