Xinda Securities·2025-08-29 09:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable recovery in international routes and passenger load factors [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in passenger traffic, leading to high earnings elasticity in the future [9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 80.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, with passenger and cargo revenues at 73.2 billion and 3.6 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 35.11% [3] - The company recorded a significant reduction in losses, with Q2 net profit turning positive at 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.5% [3] Capacity and Load Factors - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with international ASK recovering to 90.1% of the 2019 level [4] - The revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) rose by 5.2%, with international RPK recovering to 86.6% of the 2019 level [4] - The overall passenger load factor was 80.7%, with domestic and international load factors at 82.8% and 76.2%, respectively [4] Pricing and Cost Structure - The unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 4.9% to 0.511 yuan, while the unit cost per ASK fell by 2.2% to 0.441 yuan [5] - The average fuel price decreased by 13.5%, contributing to a reduction in unit fuel costs [5] Investment and Market Position - The company plans to increase its stake in its subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines with a total financing amount of 16 billion yuan, aimed at consolidating market share in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.05 billion, 7.56 billion, and 10.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [9]