贵金属市场周报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong rebound this week due to dovish stances from Fed officials, stable rate - cut expectations, and increased market risk - aversion. Despite economic data showing resilience, the dollar was not supported, and the "asymmetry" in economic indicators affected the long - end yield of US Treasuries, boosting the monetary attribute of gold. The market is awaiting the July core PCE data and the next non - farm payroll report. If inflation continues to slow and employment data weakens, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will rise, potentially driving gold prices higher. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation is a variable, but currently, the willingness of Russia to reach a cease - fire is low. It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed officials showed dovish stances, and Trump's actions increased risk - aversion. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, the labor market was resilient, and inflation data showed a slowdown. However, the dollar was not supported, and the precious metals market remained resilient [7]. - Market Outlook: The July core PCE data on Friday night will be a key guide. If it shows inflation slowdown, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and gold prices may break new highs. The non - farm payroll report next Friday is also crucial. A slowdown in employment data will boost rate - cut expectations. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation may affect gold's safe - haven property, but its impact is currently limited [7]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips. The expected price ranges for Shanghai gold 2510 contract are 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver 2510 contract are 9350 - 9450 yuan/kilogram. For London gold, it is 3350 - 3450 dollars/ounce, and for London silver, it is 38.5 - 39.5 dollars/ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: Gold and silver prices rose this week. As of August 29, 2025, COMEX silver was at 39.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.34% month - on - month; Shanghai silver 2510 contract was at 9386 yuan/kilogram, up 2.11% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at 3470 dollars/ounce, up 1.54% month - on - month; Shanghai gold 2510 contract was at 785.12 yuan/gram, up 1.52% month - on - month [9][11]. - ETF Holdings: The net holdings of gold and silver ETFs on the foreign market increased this week. As of August 28, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15333 tons, up 0.40% month - on - month, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 967.94 tons, up 1.20% month - on - month [13][17]. - Speculative Positions: As of August 19, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions decreased, while silver speculative net positions increased. The total and net positions of COMEX gold decreased, while those of COMEX silver increased [19][23]. - CFTC Positions: As of August 19, 2025, CFTC gold long positions decreased week - on - week, and short positions increased [25][29]. - Basis: The basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened this week. As of August 28, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.22 yuan/gram, down 51.9% month - on - month, and the silver basis was - 28 yuan/kilogram, down 247.40% month - on - month [31][33]. - Inventory: The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, while that of silver decreased, showing a differentiated trend from COMEX inventory. As of August 28, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38764636.49 ounces, up 0.49% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 37455 kilograms, up 3.05% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 508778300 ounces, up 0.10% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1109123 kilograms, down 2.80% month - on - month [35][39]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - Imports: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The monthly value of silver imports was 252977.88 kilograms, down 7.46% month - on - month, and the monthly value of silver ore imports was 154158134.00 kilograms, up 22.32% month - on - month [41][45]. - Downstream Demand: As of July 2025, due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4690000.00 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 15% [47][51]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The silver supply and demand were in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, total supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [53][57][61]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - Prices: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices rose with the gold price. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 776.40 yuan/gram, up 0.83% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Dafu gold also increased [63][65]. - Supply and Demand: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The pace of central bank gold purchases slowed, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [67]. 3.4 Macro and Options - Macro Data: Recently, the expectation of rate cuts has risen significantly, and the dollar has continued to weaken. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year breakeven inflation rate in the US increased slightly this week. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [73][78][83][88].