冠通研究：供需双弱，震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term weak adjustments. After entering September, supported by autumn fertilizers, and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tenders, there may be opportunities for a rebound [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the market opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1] - On the supply side, due to summer maintenance and military parade - related production restrictions, some upstream factories have shut down for maintenance, and the daily production has been adjusted down to about 180,000 tons. However, these are normal planned maintenance, and the impact on the market is limited under high - level production capacity [1] - On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and production restrictions during the military parade, downstream production has been restricted. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period and has continued to decline for two weeks, with limited room for further increase. The finished product inventory has been at a five - year high in the past two months and has started to decline this week, and autumn fertilizers are gradually being promoted [1] - The inventory has continued to accumulate, increasing by 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. Some regions have export orders or maintenance plans, leading to inventory reduction. In the short term, urea is in a weak adjustment, and both upstream and downstream will face maintenance and production cuts next week [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,754 yuan/ton, then opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. The trading volume was 219,096 lots, a decrease of 2,504 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,131 lots, and short positions decreased by 651 lots [2] - In the spot market, the atmosphere in the urea spot market improved today, with more low - price purchases. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotation increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [10] - According to Feiyitong data, on August 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.39% [12]