玉米类市场周报：前期空单止盈离场，推动盘面底部回弹-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. This week, corn futures rebounded from lows. The US corn production forecast is high but lower than the USDA's August prediction. Domestically, new - crop corn is approaching the listing period, supply is expected to be ample, and demand is weak. However, the futures price rebounded slightly due to short - covering [9][10]. - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The industry's operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, and demand is in the off - season. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still significantly higher year - on - year. The futures price was boosted by the corn rebound [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Corn - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view [9]. - Market Review: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2191 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Outlook: US production forecast is high but lower than USDA's prediction. Domestic new - crop corn is coming, supply is expected to be abundant, demand is weak, and the futures price rebounded due to short - covering [10]. - Corn Starch - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view [13]. - Market Review: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2501 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - Outlook: The operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price was boosted by the corn rebound. As of August 27, the inventory was 131.8 tons, down 2.10 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn futures 11 - month contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 983,279 lots, an increase of 28,014 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures 11 - month contract oscillated slightly higher, with a total position of 208,887 lots, an increase of 6,098 lots from last week [20]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes - Corn futures' top 20 net position was - 85,810, compared with - 97,205 last week, and the net short position decreased [26]. - Starch futures' top 20 net position was - 35,033, compared with - 20,670 last week, and the net short position increased [26]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts - Yellow corn registered warehouse receipts were 69,426 [32]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [32]. - Spot Price and Basis - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 174 yuan/ton [37]. - Corn starch in Jilin was reported at 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong at 2950 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 349 yuan/ton [42]. - Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The corn 11 - 1 spread was 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - The starch 11 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The 11 - month contract spread between starch and corn was 310 yuan/ton. In the 35th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - Substitute Spread - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2429.83 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 64.54 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 35th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 184 yuan/ton, widening by 27 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 770,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.272 million tons, a decrease of 239,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons week - on - week [52]. - In July 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 94.50%, and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with the same period last month [70]. - As of August 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.13 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.50%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [74]. - Demand - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [78]. - As of August 22, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 33.95 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 151.8 yuan/head [82]. - As of August 28, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 65 yuan/ton [87]. - As of August 29, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 456 yuan/ton, in Jilin - 630 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang - 207 yuan/ton [87]. - Corn Starch - Supply - As of August 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.942 million tons, a decrease of 6.51% [91]. - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 539,300 tons, a decrease of 9700 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 263,900 tons, a decrease of 6700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.01%, a decrease of 1.3% from last week. As of August 27, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.318 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [95]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 29, the implied volatility of the corn main 2511 contract was 10.7%, up 0.97% from 9.73% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and rebounded this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [98].