Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-29 10:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2330 - 2410 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of inland methanol enterprises increased this week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The increase in port inventory depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels [8] - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in China is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2330 - 2410 range in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market weakened, and the inland market declined. The price ranges in different regions are provided [8] - Market outlook: Production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.83% [13] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 29, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 11 [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of August 29, there were 9746 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 920 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 29, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2222.5 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2050.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 28, methanol CFR China Main Port was 258 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China Main Port was 64 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 29, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 138.5 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, NYMEX natural gas closed at 299 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of August 28, China's methanol production was 1918285 tons, an increase of 24290 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase [44] - Inventory: As of August 27, the total port inventory was 129.93 million tons, an increase of 22.33 million tons. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a 7.27% increase [49] - Import: In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 110.27 million tons, a 9.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 648.00 million tons, a 14.66% year - on - year decrease. As of August 28, the import profit was - 0.72 yuan/ton, down 17.2 yuan/ton from last week [52] - Downstream: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins was 86.41%, a 0.71% increase. As of August 29, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 909 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]