Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-29 10:04Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and power supply is stable after the peak - summer period. Many small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. Overseas, the Fed is open to interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - 523 coking coal mines: The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Warehouse receipts: The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. - Profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. - Profitability rate of steel mills: The profitability rate is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - Demand - side hot metal production: The average daily hot metal output is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year [9]. Market Outlook - Macro: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh; many small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates; from January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. - Overseas: The Fed is open to interest rate cuts, which led to a sharp rebound in the night - session of black commodities. Trump plans to "fire" the current Fed governor, and Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. - Supply and demand: The mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. - Technical: The weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. - Strategy: The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of August 29, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 910,100 lots, an increase of 11,790 lots week - on - week. - As of August 29, the price difference between coking coal contracts 1 - 9 is 164.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 points week - on - week. - As of August 29, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. - As of August 29, the ratio of the January coke - coking coal futures contract is 1.43, a decrease of 0.02 points week - on - week [14][23]. Spot Market - As of August 28, 2025, the ex - warehouse price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the basis of coking coal is - 75.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.0 points week - on - week [27]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Upstream - The National Energy Administration aims to enhance overseas resource supply and cooperation with major coal - producing countries. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of coking coal decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import of coking coal was 962.30 tons, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. Mongolia is the largest source of imports, accounting for about 47% [55]. Industry - 523 coking coal mines: The capacity utilization rate is 84.0%, a decrease of 1.2% week - on - week. The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. The raw coal inventory is 472.6 tons, an increase of 1.0 ton week - on - week. The average daily output of clean coal is 75.3 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 283.6 tons, an increase of 8.0 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The capacity utilization rate is 36.5%, an increase of 0.47% week - on - week. The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 289.5 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): As of August 22, 2025, it is 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Coking coal inventory in ports: The inventory in 16 ports is 455.41 tons, an increase of 4.96 tons week - on - week [31][35][40]. Downstream - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 811.85 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons week - on - week, and the available days of coking coal are 13.25 days, an increase of 0.18 days week - on - week [44][48].