瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. In the import rubber market, the quoted prices moved up, with high buying and replenishment sentiment among traders and strong actual order transactions. In the futures market, prices were strongly volatile. The spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the upward adjustment of the futures market, but the downstream inquiry atmosphere was not high, and market transactions were cautious with light actual order transactions [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply remains tight due to weather interference, and purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, local precipitation has slowed down the recovery of raw material supply, and local processing plants are still competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased at a larger month - on - month rate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and storage of overseas goods have decreased month - on - month, while the procurement sentiment of downstream tire enterprises is positive, and warehouse shipments are better than expected. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operation was stable this week, but some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The equipment operation of full - steel tire sample enterprises was stable, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises reduced production at the end of this week due to end - of - month maintenance, which also affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15650 - 16200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the natural rubber market had positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. Import rubber market quotes moved up, with strong actual order transactions. The futures market was strongly volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot quotes followed the upward adjustment, but downstream transactions were cautious [7]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has tight raw material supply due to weather, and Hainan has slow supply recovery due to precipitation. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing, with reduced overseas arrivals and high downstream procurement. In the tire industry, semi - steel tire enterprises' capacity utilization is affected by maintenance, and full - steel tire enterprises also face some production reduction due to maintenance [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15650 - 16200, and the nr2510 contract between 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Trends: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.5% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - standard rubber rose by 1.48% week - on - week [10]. - Position Analysis: Not summarized in the text. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of August 29, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - standard rubber contracts 10 - 11 was - 30 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 29, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; 20 - standard rubber warehouse receipts were 45,662 tons, an increase of 828 tons from last week [26]. Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis: As of August 28, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - 20 - Standard Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of August 28, the 20 - standard rubber basis was 354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Thai Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits: As of August 28, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.45 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 50.7 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 29, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 35.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Prices: As of August 28, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [41]. Import and Inventory - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [45]. - Qingdao Inventory: As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons, a decrease of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [49]. Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [52]. - Tire Exports: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [56]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales): In July 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% from June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [59]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided