利多驱动释放，煤焦震荡回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coke, the "anti-involution" theme of coking coal has seen no new drivers recently. The coking coal market has entered the actual supply verification stage, with market divergence between bulls and bears. The cost support for coke has weakened, leading to the range-bound operation of the futures main contract. Considering the medium- and long-term impact of the "anti-involution" policy, there may still be new positive factors on the supply side in the future, and the callback space for coke in this round is expected to be limited [4][32]. - For coking coal, the total inventory of coking coal within the statistical scope this week is 23.3207 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 162,600 tons. Coal mines and ports have increased their inventories, while coke enterprises and steel mills have reduced their inventories, indicating an increase in downstream wait-and-see sentiment and a decline in procurement enthusiasm. At present, the positive factors on the coking coal supply side have been partially realized. Before there are new drivers for the "anti-involution" theme, the coking coal futures are expected to maintain range-bound operation. Considering the medium- and long-term impact of the "anti-involution" theme, the callback space for coking coal in this round may be relatively limited [4][32]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The National Mine Safety Administration issued a notice on implementing the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations," which will come into effect on February 1, 2026 [6]. - On August 29, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal concentrate (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,470 yuan/ton including tax [7]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex-warehouse price of quasi-primary coke at Rizhao Port is 1,570 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.29%, a month-on-month increase of 10.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%. The ex-warehouse price of quasi-primary coke at Qingdao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.68%, a month-on-month increase of 5.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.64% [8]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,180 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%, a month-on-month increase of 2.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,580 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.27%, a month-on-month increase of 6.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.60%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,630 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change, a month-on-month decrease of 1.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.54% [8]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke futures active contract is 1,643.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. The highest price is 1,680.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,635.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,608 lots, a decrease of 4,754 lots, and the open interest is 43,440 lots, an increase of 1,739 lots [12]. - The closing price of the coking coal futures active contract is 1,151.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The highest price is 1,180.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,139.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,398,041 lots, a decrease of 48,937 lots, and the open interest is 738,966 lots, a decrease of 2,121 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of independent coking plants, ports, and steel mills, as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal thread and screw purchases, wash coal plant production, and coking plant operation [13][24][30]. 后市研判 - The analysis and expectations for coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, with coke expected to have limited callback space and coking coal expected to maintain range-bound operation considering the "anti-involution" policy and inventory changes [32].