金信期货观点-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the demand for pure benzene has some support, and the BZN spread remains stable. Styrene is expected to oscillate with bottom support in September due to high planned maintenance volume. [3] - The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year. Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September. [4] - The tight - balance pattern of PX has loosened, and its processing fee support is weakening. The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, but it is still a long - term supply - surplus situation. [4] - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to low inventory and slightly improved demand. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs BZ&EB - Pure benzene's current high - level operating rate and decreased port inventory, but overall inventory is still high and may accumulate later. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and terminal orders are poor. [3] - Styrene's operating rate remains stable, with a slight inventory build - up. Planned maintenance in September may lead to supply contraction, and downstream demand is rising. [3] - This week, pure benzene's operating rate is 79.18% (up 0.19% from last week), and styrene's is 78.07% (down 0.46% from last week). BZN remains at around $150/ton. [30] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand has improved month - on - month, but terminal consumption verification is needed. [30] Crude Oil - The IEA predicts a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year due to OPEC+ production increase and slow demand growth. [4] - Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September to see if production increase will be suspended in October. [4] PX&PTA - Domestic PX's operating rate is high, inventory has changed from destocking to stocking, and the tight - balance pattern has loosened. [4] - The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, and there is a destocking expectation. The processing fee has recovered to 239 yuan/ton but is still at a low level this year. [4] - China's PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, the same as last week, and Asia's is 74.45% (up 1.54% week - on - week). [8] - The PTA spot price is 4834 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis is 2.75 yuan/ton. [11] - The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 70.71% (down 5.51% week - on - week) due to a 500 - million - ton device's maintenance. [11] MEG - There are supply - side policies stimulating the ethylene glycol market, but there are also demand - side device clearances bringing negative pressure. [4] - This week, the ethylene glycol price is 4539 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from last week), and the total domestic capacity utilization rate is 65.11% (up 2.66% from last week). [15] - Ethylene glycol's port inventory is at a historical low level (41.32 million tons, down 8.46 million tons from last week), and attention should be paid to the supply - demand gap risk. [15] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry is 86.66% (up 0.11% week - on - week). [22] - Terminal orders have increased, and the market sentiment has improved, but the industry is still over - supplied, and downstream profits are still in the red. [22] - Based on the demand seasonality of textile raw materials, the decline in filament and staple fiber demand may be almost over, and attention should be paid to whether demand will pick up next month. [22]