沪铜月报：金九银十，铜能否迎来宏微共振？-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak seasons of “Golden September and Silver October” and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, copper prices are expected to rise due to the resonance of macro - and micro - factors, but there is also a risk of a short - term decline if expectations are not met. In the long term, the report is bullish on copper [6]. - Overall, the resilience of US macro data, Trump's active pressure, and the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September have led to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in copper prices. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the A - share bull market has siphoned funds from the commodity market. Fundamentally, supply disruptions in copper ore and the recovery of demand during the peak season, along with tight domestic copper social inventories, suggest that copper prices will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended to hold existing long copper positions and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. Enterprises should wait for high - price opportunities to conduct sell - hedging. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the China - US game and as a substitute for precious metals, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Macroeconomic Analysis - US Economic Indicators and Fed Policy: The market is waiting for US inflation and employment data. The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, but it may be affected by inflation. Although the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing and previous data was revised downward, the number of unemployment benefit claimants has recently declined. The market expects the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to remain at a 2.6% increase. If the data is mild, the Fed may focus more on employment pressure; otherwise, the probability of a September rate cut may be reduced. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased the expectation of a September rate cut, with traders' probability bets exceeding 80%. The US dollar index has weakened, and copper prices have shown an upward trend [10]. - Domestic Macroeconomic Situation: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. There is a short - term domestic policy vacuum period. Before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market was booming, siphoning funds from the commodity market. After the parade, market sentiment may cool down, and there is a risk of a decline in copper prices [13]. 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco's copper production is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, and Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are approaching the quota. China's copper concentrate imports in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but port inventories are significantly lower than the historical average. The global production and capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates have declined. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted [34]. - Scrap Copper: The scrap copper market has a tight supply. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has a narrow fluctuation, weakening the substitution effect of scrap copper and stimulating refined copper consumption. Domestic scrap copper supply has increased in the first half of the year, while imported scrap copper has decreased slightly. The production of blister copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic and imported blister copper are at historical lows [38]. - Refined Copper: In July, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that production will decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. The supply gap of refined copper in 2025 has narrowed, showing a tight balance. The import of refined copper has increased in July, and the import window has opened recently. The ICSG reported a supply surplus in the global copper market from January to June 2025, but the surplus has narrowed [43]. - Demand Side - Downstream Processing Enterprises: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, downstream copper processing enterprises were in a traditional off - season, with lower operating rates. The operating rates of most copper product enterprises decreased in July, except for the copper foil industry [49]. - Terminal Demand: The demand for electricity and new energy vehicles has shown resilience. From January to July, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations performed well. The real estate market is still in a difficult situation. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. The performance of household appliances is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [54]. 3. Summary and Outlook - Macro - level: The release of US inflation and employment data is imminent. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, there is a risk of reversals. The market sentiment is cautious. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the LPR remains unchanged. After the military parade in early September, market sentiment may decline, and attention should be paid to domestic and international macro - data [74]. - Fundamental - level: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. Although China's electrolytic copper production increased in July, it may decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. With the approaching peak seasons and inventory replenishment, demand is expected to recover. Globally, copper inventories have increased monthly, but domestic copper social inventories are low. The short - term contradiction in the copper market is the weak reality of inventory accumulation after the US copper tariff TACO versus the strong expectation of inventory depletion during the peak season. The medium - term contradiction lies in the interference of copper concentrates and the inverted TC versus the high elasticity of refined copper supply. The long - term contradiction is the global economic concerns caused by China - US confrontation versus the booming demand for green copper in the power and new energy sectors [74].