碳酸锂月报：去库预期仍存，碳酸锂低多对待-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the trading focus in the commodity market will gradually shift back to the industry, with a greater emphasis on fundamental factors. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to decline in September after reaching a record high in August, while the demand from the terminal new - energy vehicle market and the energy storage market is increasing. As a result, the total inventory is likely to continue to decrease, and the price of the lithium carbonate main contract has room for an upward movement after stabilizing [77]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In July, China's economic data showed signs of weakness. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7% (previous value: 6.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7% (previous value: 4.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6% (previous value: 2.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0% (previous value: - 11.2%). The year - on - year growth rate of general infrastructure investment was 7.3% (previous value: 8.9%), and the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2% (previous value: 7.5%). The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was - 1.5% (previous value: - 4.3%). The Fed Chairman's stance was dovish, and the market expected an over 80% probability of an interest - rate cut in September, betting on two interest - rate cuts within the year [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - The estimated output in August was around 80,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. Although the capacity utilization rate increased due to the rising enthusiasm of external - procurement enterprises to lock in processing profits through the futures market, the output of mica decreased due to the shutdown of leading manufacturers. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [3]. - As of July, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,243,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%. The monthly operating rate was 45.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The output in July was 85,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - As of August 22, the lithium carbonate output was 20,438 tons, a week - on - week increase of 345 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The output of lithium hydroxide was 4,730 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 32.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China reached 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in August last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. - In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in six European countries was 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the US was 144,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 13% [4]. - In July, the domestic energy storage market had a tender scale of 9.0GW/25.8GWh for energy - storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders including equipment, and there were also 1.73GWh of energy - storage DC - side orders finalized. The average price of 2 - hour energy - storage systems was 0.526 yuan/Wh, a month - on - month decrease of 17.9% [32]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In July, the smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 13% [33]. 3.4 Inventory - As of August 28, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 43,336 tons, a decrease of 8,622 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 52,800 tons, an increase of 8,920 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 888 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,957 tons, an increase of 23,412 tons from the previous month [4]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of August 28, the average industry cost was 68,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,596 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% was 680 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 146 US dollars/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 13,954 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,495 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,417 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,079 yuan, and the industry profit was 13,954 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,498 yuan. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,167 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,006 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,089 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,453 yuan [60][62]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 35,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 161 yuan/ton, and the loss was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [64]. 3.6 Market Price - As of August 27, the LC2511 contract closed at a price with a 14.4% increase compared with the previous month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.3% compared with the previous month, and the basis changed from a large premium to a discount. The position of the main contract was 347,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in August. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 13.14%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.59% [6]. 3.7 Import and Export - In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. The import volume from Chile was 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [19]. - In July 2025, the import volume of spodumene in China was 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The import volume from Australia was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [22]. 3.8 Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after a sufficient correction, with a reference range of [75,000, 90,000] [78]. - Hedging strategy: In the long - term, the market is still in an oversupply situation. Production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].