矿石：需双降背景下价然坚挺

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore will be weak in September, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. Attention should be paid to the restoration of molten iron after the military parade and the strength of the downstream peak season. If there is significant inventory reduction and rapid restoration of molten iron during the peak season, the iron ore price will remain firm. Otherwise, attention can be paid to the bottom - up negative feedback [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated strongly. As of August 28, the futures price of the main contract increased by 33.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [2][4] 2. Supply Side - Mainstream Mines: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase in September, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 325 tons. Specifically, VALE's estimated shipment in September is 2785 tons, a decrease of 5 tons month - on - month; Rio Tinto's is 3015 tons, an increase of 195 tons; BHP's is 2380 tons, an increase of about 55 tons; and FMG's is 1610 tons, an increase of 80 tons [23][26][27] - Non - mainstream Mines: The shipments of non - mainstream mines are relatively stable overall. The estimated shipment in August is 4740 tons, and in September it is 4715 tons, a decrease of about 25 tons [30] - Domestic Mines: The domestic iron concentrate production is expected to decrease slightly. The estimated production in August is 2056 tons, and in September it is 1985 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [33] - Overall Supply: The global supply in September is expected to increase by about 235 tons month - on - month [34] 3. Demand Side - Domestic Demand: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated national pig iron production in August is 7460 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The estimated blast furnace molten iron production in September is 7190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270 tons, which translates to a decrease of 443 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [5][16][20] - Overseas Demand: The daily average pig iron production outside China remains stable for now. The estimated pig iron production in September will decrease by 30 tons, which translates to a decrease of about 49 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [19][20] - Overall Demand: Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in September is expected to decrease by about 492 tons [5][20] 4. Inventory - Port Inventory: At the end of August, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 1.38 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 105 tons. The inventory in September is expected to fluctuate slightly [35] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills adopt low - inventory management. They replenished inventory at low levels in June and July, and there may be inventory replenishment before the long holiday at the end of September [37] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore in September will be weak, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. The supply - demand surplus in September is estimated to be - 26 tons [43][44]