全球经济和大类资产月报：美联储放鸽9月降息-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economy maintains an upward trend with positive signs in the US, Eurozone, and India, while China is shifting towards AI - driven development [48]. - There are various trends in different asset classes: US stocks are not optimistic, UK bonds face risks, Japanese bonds may see rising yields, and emerging market funds are flowing from India to China. Chinese stocks are attracting more investment, and certain ETFs and bonds have their own outlooks [51][53][56][59]. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Aspects US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing and Services: The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI hit a more than 3 - year high, and the services business activity index also showed trends. The 7 - month retail and food sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month [6][48]. - Labor Market: There is a strange balance in the labor market with no recruitment or dismissal by companies and no resignation by employees. Initial and continued jobless claims data indicate labor market resilience [10][13]. - Trade: In June, the US goods import returned to normal, capital goods imports reached the second - highest level with a 13.9% year - on - year increase, and service exports remained high [19][22][25]. - Inventory: Wholesalers' and manufacturers' inventories are in an active restocking state with 1.3% and 1.1% year - on - year growth respectively [28]. - Inflation: In July, the core CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and PPI for goods and services also rose, indicating accelerating inflation [34][37]. - Wages: The hourly wage of non - farm enterprises and its year - on - year growth are presented [40]. Other Regions' Economic Indicators - Eurozone: After 8 consecutive interest rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion, the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [42]. - India: The July manufacturing PMI reached a one - year high, and both manufacturing and services have been expanding for over three years [45]. Asset Class Analysis - Stocks: US stocks are showing fatigue. Chinese stocks are attracting more investment from emerging market funds, Korean investors, etc. The four major Chinese stock indices are optimistic in the medium - term, and AI ETFs are expected to be strong [51][59][62][65]. - Bonds: UK bonds are being sold off, Japanese bonds may see rising yields due to expected interest rate hikes, and bond funds are being redeemed with funds flowing to the stock market [53][56][67]. - Commodities: After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the recovery strength of commodities is uncertain, and gold is in a technical adjustment with potential support from the rate cut [69][72]. - Currency: The RMB is expected to have double surpluses in trade and capital accounts and is being favored [75].