聚酯产业风险管理日报：驱动不足，震荡看待-20250829

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily risk management report on the polyester industry dated August 29, 2025 [1][3] - It focuses on ethylene glycol in the polyester industry, analyzing its supply - demand, market trends, and providing trading strategies [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating mentioned in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has no obvious fundamental drivers currently. In the short - term, commodity sentiment is expected to face a correction during the policy vacuum period. However, due to low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend, oscillating between 4350 - 4550. Trading strategy is to go long on dips within the range, and for the medium - to - long - term, observe the peak season performance of downstream polyester. Long positions can be combined with selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for covered call operations [5] Group 4: Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%; for PX it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%; for PTA it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%; for bottle chips it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [4] Group 5: Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, sell 25% of EG2601 futures at 4550 - 4700 to lock in profits; buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4600 call options, with a total hedging ratio of 50%, to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of EG2601 futures at 4350 - 4450 to lock in procurement costs; sell 75% of EG2510P4400 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [4] Group 6: Market Drivers Bullish Factors - South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact ethylene glycol raw material supply and ethylene production costs; planned port arrivals this week are 85,100 tons, and next Monday's port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons, tightening spot liquidity; loom load has been slightly increasing, with some autumn and winter orders starting in September and foreign trade orders recovering, which is expected to boost the load of filaments and staple fibers [8] Bearish Factors - The total supply load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%), with ethylene - based and coal - based production loads increasing. Next week, some plants plan to overhaul while others plan to restart and increase load, and the total load is expected to continue to rise [9] Group 7: Price and Related Data Table - The table shows price data of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. on August 29, 2025, August 28, 2025, and August 22, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [12][13]