有色金属周度报告-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, frequent news disturbances lead to wide - amplitude fluctuations in futures prices. Market sentiment may change repeatedly, so positions should not be too heavy [31]. - In the long - term, the monthly output of lithium carbonate is still rising, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [32]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of CU2510 rose from 78650 to 79410 (0.97% weekly increase), and the spot price rose from 78860 to 79350 (0.62% weekly increase) [2]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 rose from 20630 to 20740 (0.53% weekly increase), and the spot price rose from 20700 to 20720 (0.10% weekly increase) [2]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 dropped from 22275 to 22140 (- 0.61% weekly decrease), and the spot price dropped from 22210 to 22030 (- 0.81% weekly decrease) [2]. - Lead: The futures price of PB2510 rose from 16780 to 16880 (0.60% weekly increase), and the spot price rose from 16650 to 16725 (0.45% weekly increase) [2]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 rose from 119610 to 121700 (1.75% weekly increase), and the spot price rose from 120550 to 122400 (1.53% weekly increase) [2]. - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 dropped from 3138 to 3036 (- 3.25% weekly decrease), and the spot price dropped from 3270 to 3240 (- 0.92% weekly decrease) [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2511 dropped from 8745 to 8390 (- 4.06% weekly decrease), and the spot price dropped from 9500 to 9400 (- 1.05% weekly decrease) [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2511 dropped from 78960 to 77180 (- 2.25% weekly decrease), and the spot price dropped from 86000 to 83700 (- 2.67% weekly decrease) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2511 dropped from 51405 to 49555 (- 3.60% weekly decrease), and the spot price remained unchanged at 49000 (0.00% weekly change) [2]. Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 29, SHFE copper inventory was 79,700 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons (- 2.45% change) compared to last week. LME copper inventory was 158,900 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to last week [13]. - As of August 28, COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, an increase of 3700 tons (+ 1.36% change) compared to last week. After the tariff policy was implemented, the inventories of the three major exchanges tended to be stable [14]. Processing Fees and Indexes of Metal Ores - As of August 21, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 41.06 dollars/ton, dropping to 2.86 dollars/ton weekly. The tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [17]. - As of August 29, the latest quote of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 894 dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 dollars compared to August 22 [19]. - As of August 22, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 75 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged compared to last week [22]. Non - ferrous Metal Demand Side - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [25]. - In July, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July, new energy vehicle production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5% [25]. - From January to July, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new residential construction area was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the residential completion area was 180.67 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [27]. - In June, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% (23.33GW in the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 84.54% compared to May. As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [29]. Strategy Recommendations - Lithium Carbonate: This week, the main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000, with a weekly decline of 2.55% and an amplitude of 7.37%. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of salt lake lithium extraction capacity offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. On the demand side, approaching the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", downstream has certain stocking needs, and the consumption market is relatively active. In the short - term, both supply and demand are strong, but the spot price continues to decline. The futures price lacks upward momentum [30]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment and the impact of production increase during the wet season, the weekly declines of industrial silicon and polysilicon were 4.06% and 3.60% respectively. The polysilicon market is still in an oversupply pattern, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. Although the spot price is stable and slightly strong, providing some support for the futures market, due to weak terminal demand, price transmission is difficult [30].